How Adam Lowry may have altered Jets’ trade-deadline plans

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WINNIPEG — Once February hits, second-line centre chatter is as inevitable as frostbite in this city. 

Dating back to their 2017-18 Western Conference Final berth, the Winnipeg Jets have had a gaping hole, sandwiched between Mark Schiefele and Adam Lowry, on their depth chart. Year after year, they’ve sought external reinforcements, ponying up a first-round pick and package for the likes of Paul Stastny, Kevin Hayes and Sean Monahan.

And once again, a bonafide ‘2C’ is on fans’ trade-deadline wishlist this year.

Vladislav Namestnikov has been miscast as a top-six player. Cole Perfetti has been deployed on the wing all year. And despite Gabriel Vilardi looking like a faceoff ace whenever he takes draws, the Jets aren’t shifting to the middle anytime soon. 

In a perfect world, Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff pulls a rabbit-out-of-a-hat move that solidifies Winnipeg’s pillars down the middle. But that’s easier said than done. Especially this year, where the quality of centre rentals isn’t great. Take away Brock Nelson — a player the Jets should certainly pursue — and you’d be hard-pressed to find a centre (with limited trade protection) that could conceivably be deployed in a second-line role on a Cup contender. 

But what if the Jets don’t need a second-line centre? They may already have one in Lowry.

Before Lowry suffered an upper-body injury on Monday (he’s out week-to-week), the Jets captain looked excellent alongside Nikolaj Ehlers through a four-game span. Lowry’s ability to be a force down the middle, at both ends of the rink, opened up space for Ehlers and enabled the Danish winger to generate several Grade-A chances. Since those two and Alex Iafallo became a line on Jan. 11, that trio has out-chanced opponents 25-10 during five-on-five play. 

Now, many of you are probably thinking the same thing: how is a renowned shutdown centre like Lowry — who’s never scored more than 15 goals — a plausible second-line centre solution?

For starters, look no further than the impact he’s had on him, Nino Niederreiter and Mason Appleton becoming one of the best third lines in hockey. It’s no disrespect to Niederreiter or Appleton, but that line, at its peak, wouldn’t be what it was without Lowry. The numbers speak for themselves. Dating back to the 2022-23 season, Lowry’s 57.07 high-danger Corsi-for percentage and his 57.54 goals-for percentage rank in the 94th and 92nd percentile, respectively, among forwards to have played at least 500 minutes. While he’s usually lauded for his ability to handle tough assignments and defend the slot, Lowry’s also an incredible forechecker who’s able to get the puck to prime scoring areas. He just lacks finishing talent. But that’s fine. 

His play-driving ability, and noted chemistry with Ehlers, is enough to overcompensate for his subpar raw offensive talent. Sure, that pairing may be unconventional – but sometimes, you’ve got to stray away from the norm.

“A lot of people in hockey think they’re trying to build a puzzle, and certain players can only fit in certain spots,” one member of an Eastern Conference front office told Sportsnet earlier this week. “But that’s stupid. You’re not playing who can build a better puzzle — you’re playing rock, paper, scissors. You either win, or you lose. So whether you have Rasmus Kupari with Ehlers, or Adam Lowry — if that line outscores the opposition, they’re winning for you. It really doesn’t matter how things are configured. The outcome is what matters.” 

We also can’t underestimate the value in Lowry developing chemistry with Ehlers — a player that isn’t easy to jell with. For all Ehlers’ flaws, we all know the Jets aren’t going to go anywhere if they aren’t able to squeeze the most out of him. And if there’s any outside shot of this team re-signing Ehlers once he becomes a UFA, keeping him alongside Lowry could help increase those odds. He sure seems to like playing with Lowry. 

“He wins a lot of battles. And I think he wants to use my speed as much as possible,” Ehlers said after him and Lowry’s first game together. “He creates a lot of room for me to use that speed.”

According to Garret Hohl, who tracks Jets microstats and shares over at ‘The Five Hohl’ on substack, Ehlers generated 5.5 controlled zone entries through four games alongside Lowry — a sizeable increase from his output pre-Lowry (3.97).

The trickle-down effect of having Lowry as the ‘2C’ stretches far beyond just Ehlers’ usage. It’s led to the formation of the Niederreiter-Kupari-Perfetti line, which has helped the latter two play some of their best hockey of the season. It’ll likely drop Mason Appleton down to a fourth-line role, where his skillset is better suited than when he’s logging heavy minutes while riding shotgun with Lowry. 

And above all, it eases the burden on Winnipeg’s front office ahead of the deadline. Assuming Lowry remains with Ehlers, Cheveldayoff will likely be looking for an upgrade on Kupari as the ‘3C’ on that secondary scoring line, or a player that could replace Lowry on a checking line that’s rounded out by Appleton and Niederreiter. That’s much easier than trying to find a bonafide ‘2C’. 

Over the last while, the Jets have held pretty firm in having a traditional top-six, bottom-six configuration. But as we’ve seen throughout the year — with the second line of Ehlers, Namestnikov and Perfetti — that hasn’t been ideal. Once the playoffs roll around, there’s no way this team is going anywhere if the Kyle Connor–Scheifele- Vilardi line is the only trio scoring goals. They need a second, and honestly even third, layer. 

By keeping Lowry alongside Ehlers, it sets the template for Winnipeg to do that. 

Possible middle-six ‘C’ options on other teams

Brock Nelson, New York Islanders: Sure, there’s probably going to be a bidding war – but that doesn’t mean Nelson shouldn’t be their top target. The 33-year-old is one year removed from three consecutive 30-plus goal seasons and is a powerful power forward who scores the majority of his goals from the slot area. Fun Fact: Nelson’s hometown of Warroad, Minn. is two-and-a-half hours away from Winnipeg.

Yanni Gourde, Seattle Kraken: The two-time Cup winner is a hard-nosed forechecker and he could help form a high-end checking line alongside Appleton and Niederreiter. The 33-year-old is two years removed from consecutive 48-point seasons. 

Trent Frederic, Boston Bruins: Frederic’s style of play embodies exactly what the Jets try to be. Frederic’s combination of size, forechecking ability and toughness would be a huge asset in the playoffs.

Jonathan Toews, Free Agent: Now, this would be quite the story. A three-time Stanley Cup champion — renowned for his leadership abilities — coming out of retirement to play for his hometown team? Storybook. Now, while the Jets appear to have interest, Toews is 36 years old and hasn’t played since the 2022-23 season. No guarantee that he’s a serviceable player, let alone a top-nine piece. 

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